Everyone thought that the severe drought would hurt the cedar trees and limit pollen production. That’s what has happened in several recent years, including last year.

During the winter of 2010-2011, the severe portion of cedar season began on New Year’s Eve, and lasted about one week.  This year, cedar counts spiked two days earlier and, as of this writing on January 23, show no signs of letting up.

The usual basis for predicting pollen seasons is to look at rainfall.  For trees, that means looking at rainfall in the past year, particularly last spring.  Rain in the last month or two before pollination, such as we had this past October and November, is not usually enough to rescue the health of the trees.  That pattern has held up for cedar in recent years, at least until now.

Some have suggested that the trees know that they are in trouble with the recent severe drought, and are fighting back with an attempt to produce as many seeds as possible before they die.  Such effects have been documented with oak trees in the past.  And we’ve all witnessed the remarkable sight of scattered dead cedar trees in the landscape this past summer.

So the obvious question on everyone’s mind is, “When will it end?”  Or best guidance comes from the historical record.  Typical cedar seasons fade in late January or early February, but in recent years have at times extended into early March.  

One thing is certain: after this year’s cedar experience, everyone will have a little more sympathy for the job of weather forecasters!